Democratic Choice of Kazakhstan abanded slogan "Kazakhstan Without Nazarbayev"

Ibragim Alibekov

1/31/03 - President Nursultan Nazarbayev has used both carrots and sticks in trying to hinder attempts by opposition groups in Kazakhstan to consolidate. The president's methods have proven successful in recent weeks, as he has been able to exploit strategic differences among opposition leaders.

Nazarbayev and his critics have been locked in a back-and-forth political scrum for over a year. As pressure has increased against his administration, Nazarbayev has sought to clamp down on freedom of speech and punish his leading critics by launching criminal cases against them. In addition, the Kazakhstani president has implemented a new law on political parties that inhibits the ability of some opposition movements to legally operate.

Two major opposition entities, Democratic Choice of Kazakhstan (DCK) and the Republican People’s Party of Kazakhstan (RNPK) did not meet criteria for official registration under the new Law on Political Parties. Only one prominent opposition party, Ak Zhol, received a registration certificate. Both the DCK and RNPK have taken steps to continue political activities. The RNPK, for example, re-chartered itself as a "political club," while DCK is attempting to forge a united opposition bloc.

Hoping to keep his political opponents on the defensive, Nazarbayev scored a major political victory when he enticed Oraz Jandosov, an Ak Zhol leader, to accept an appointment as special economic advisor to the president. Some observers, including DCK activist Peter Svoik, believe the January 9 announcement of Jandosov's appointment would effectively neutralize Ak Zhol, which had the reputation of being the most moderate of the main opposition movements.

In sharp contrast, Nazarbayev is cracking down on his more implacable political opponents. On January 7, Kazakhstan's financial police announced that it was conducting an investigation of Amirzhan Kosanov, the RNPK executive committee chairman, for alleged tax evasion. The state says that the foundation that he heads, Reforma, owes approximately $16,000 in back taxes.

In an exclusive interview with EurasiaNet in New York, Kosanov insisted that he and his party complied with Kazakhstan's taxation legislation, calling the case against him politically motivated. "For the last five years, we have filed tax returns every year in full compliance with the law," Kosanov said. "Every year we were audited, and there were never any questions raised at the time. ... The reason why they [authorities] are doing this is to discredit me as a leader of the political opposition."

The tax evasion charge carries a maximum penalty of three years in prison. Authorities also are considering a forgery charge against Kosanov, who is a political ally of Akezhan Kazhegeldin, the exiled former prime minister who is Nazarbayev's fiercest political rival. Despite his belief that he has documentation to prove his innocence, Kosanov says he does not expect to receive a fair hearing.

"After this [Sergei] Duvanov verdict, anything is possible," Kosanov said, referring to the 3,5 -year jail term given January 28 to the opposition journalist Duvanov supporters insist the charges against him were fabricated, and the verdict predetermined. Kosanov also cited the convictions of two DCK leaders - Mukhtar Ablyazov and Galimzhan Zhakiyanov - on abuse of power charges while both served as government officials as further evidence that the administration is utilizing the judicial system to silence its political opponents.

"It has reached the point in Kazakhstan that any time an opposition member is convicted of a crime, it must be considered a political provocation," Kossanov continued. "To tell the truth, spending three years in jail worries me, but this is politics Kazakhstan-style."

That Nazarbayev would target Kosanov is not surprising, some Almaty political observers say. The RNPK is widely considered to be an irreconcilable opposition party, holding that Nazarbayev's departure from power is needed for civil society to develop in Kazakhstan. In addition, Kosanov's perfect command of both the Russian and Kazakh languages allows him to be attuned to the concerns of both ethnic communities, a rare trait among Kazakhstani politicians, one expert said. As such, Kosanov is a politician who can potentially tap into a broad constituency.

Meanwhile, there are indications that the DCK is softening its opposition to Nazarbayev. At a January 18 party meeting, the movement's leadership voted to abandon the slogan "Kazakhstan Without Nazarbayev." Although some analysts believe that there are significant differences within the hierarchy over political strategy, a critical mass of the leadership appears to be opting for a less confrontational approach.

"We would like to lift the new movement on a new qualitative level, because elections to local legislative councils and to the lower house of Parliament are ahead," organizer Asylbek Kozhakhmetov told the Respublika newspaper. There are reports that Nazarbayev reciprocated by sending out feelers about a political detente with the DCK. The president reportedly met in recent weeks with Serikbolsyn Abdildin, the Communist Party chief who is also affiliated with the DCK. Abdildin remained tight-lipped about the discussions and deflected questions about the continuing imprisonment of Abylyazov and Zhakiyanov, the DCK leaders.

Editor's Note: Ibragim Alibekov is the pseudonym for a Kazakhstani journalist.

http://www.eurasianet.org/departments/insight/articles/eav013103.shtml