After Ukraine, the empire strikes back
When President Viktor Yushchenko took power in Ukraine's Orange
Revolution a year ago he forecast the revolt would encourage democracy across the former
Soviet Union.
Twelve months later, his prediction rings a bit hollow. The year that
began with Mr Yushchenko's triumph has ended with the success of Nursultan Nazarbayev, the
authoritarian president of Kazakhstan, who earlier this month won his third presidential
election with 91 per cent of the vote. His victory was welcomed by the region's other
authoritarian leaders, notably Russia's Vladimir Putin. The forces of anti-democracy are
striking back.
The region's democrats must not despair. Even if revolution has now
provoked an effective reaction, the campaign for political liberty in the former Soviet
Union is not finished. But success will be a long time coming.
After the Soviet Union's collapse, authoritarian ex-Communist
officials took power in most ex-Soviet republics, often rebranding themselves as
nationalists to gain legitimacy. Under former president Boris Yeltsin, Russia bucked the
trend and witnessed flashes of genuine democracy but under Mr Putin it has emerged as an
increasingly authoritarian state.
The first democratic shock came with Georgia's Rose Revolution two
years ago, when protests brought Mikheil Saakashvili to power. Then came Ukraine, followed
by Kyrgyzstan's Tulip Revolution, when Askar Akayev was deposed as president. As the
largest of the three states and the one closest to Russia, Ukraine caused the most
heartache. Incumbent rulers feared that if a revolt could succeed in Ukraine it could
succeed anywhere, even in Russia.
They were right to be afraid. Mr Yushchenko showed decisively that
even decades of totalitarianism could not keep people in chains.
Now the forces of reaction have gone into overdrive. In Uzbekistan,
hundreds died in a bloody crackdown on demonstrators in the town of Andijan. In Russia,
the Kremlin has taken a more sophisticated approach, recognising that a regime that shoots
its own people is a regime that has failed. The modern authoritarian ruler must maintain
the pressure on the media and on potential challengers. But he must also give citizens
some of what they want - especially good jobs, pensions and public services. Kazakh
officials have come to the same conclusion. So have the authorities in Azerbaijan, where
pro-government parties won recent parliamentary polls.
These authoritarian states have seen that while elections create
chances for the opposition they are also an opportunity for rulers to legitimise power.
Successful authoritarian presidents want to be popular and demonstrate their popularity in
a public test. The secret lies in rigging the test. Mr Nazarbayev's supporters resorted to
crude ballot-stuffing. But this leads to international criticism and embarrassment for any
self-respecting president. Better to prepare the ground in advance - mainly through media
manipulation - so the establishment's candidate wins without too much foul play on the
day. This is the Kremlin's strategy for 2008, when Mr Putin is required to step down and
make way for a successor. In Belarus, President Aleksander Lukashenko is taking a more
repressive approach in the run-up to next year's presidential election. But, unlike Mr
Putin, he is past caring about his international image.
The authoritarian presidents are making the most of the
revolutionaries' current difficulties. In Georgia and Ukraine, Mr Saakashvili and Mr
Yushchenko have split with former allies. In Kyrgyzstan, post-revolt in-fighting risks
descending into chaos.
But democrats must not lose hope. Despite the setbacks, the three
revolts, especially the Orange Revolution, have changed the former Soviet Union. They have
proved the region is not a no-go zone for democracy. They have developed an armoury of
peaceful weapons - including mobile phones and websites.
Above all they have demonstrated that, under the right conditions,
people power works. The region's authoritarians have responded by trying to make sure the
right conditions are not created anywhere else any time soon. The challenge for the
region's democrats is to do precisely the opposite.
“Financial Times”, December 27, 2005
http://news.ft.com/cms/s/fb54a9a0-767c-11da-a8a9-0000779e2340.html
“Financial Times”, December 27, 2005 |
