“Nazarbayev will hand over the power to
successor”
Arkady Dubnov
Late on the election day, when first election results just began to
flow in, Zharmakhan Tuyakbay – the main opponent of Nursultan Nazarbayev and chairman of
the opposition movement For a Fair Kazakhstan – talked to Arkady Dubnov, reporter of the
newspaper Vremya Novostei at his headquarters in Almaty. Mr. Tuyakbay was hardly surprised
by the reports that Nursultan Nazarbayev had 90% of the vote.
-- How could anyone believe these figures? 40% of the Kazakh citizens
are unemployed, while the authorities present opposition as an antigovernment force. They
intimidate the people by saying that opposition is allegedly planning unrest, and many
voters are afraid to openly say that they voted not for Nazarbayev. Thousands of citizens
across Kazakhstan told me under their breath during my meetings with the public: “We
support you, but we can not say this.” If the election had been fair, there would have
been a second round. The President Administration has got some real pre-election figures,
they say that in fact Nazarbayev has no more than 46% of the vote.
-- These are hard to verify. People in the street say that they vote
for the authorities because they “have already stolen enough and will now will work for
us”, while “the new authorities will take care of themselves and their relatives
first”...
-- It's the authorities who disseminate these rumors. One could only
admire their cynicism, as they openly acknowledge that they have made a fortune and those
who will come after them would steal too...
-- Don't you fear that the President will try to split opposition
after its defeat?
-- He will try by all means. He has done this before. Not long ago
Nazarbayev tried to persuade the Ak Zhol party [one of the opposition parties] to unite
with his Otan party. There were other attempts too, I was not interested in politics too
much before...
-- It was rumored prior to the election that Nazarbayev was going to
free the Democratic Choice movement leader, Galymzhan Zhakiyanov, and to permit the return
of exiled former prime minister Akezhan Kazhegeldin, who was convicted in absentia to ten
years of jail before the previous election...
-- The conviction of Kazhegeldin – and everybody know this quite well
– is pure political. It has been the only case of trial in absentia in Kazakhstan. The
possibility of his return is not ruled out. On December 16 an amnesty decree will be
issued, and the president can amnesty, among others, Kazhegeldin without the
rehabilitation of him. I don't know what will be Mr. Kazhegeldin's reaction to this. As
for Mr. Zhakiyanov, we expect the court to decide on releasing him shortly.
-- Many have noted that you refused to capitalize on the Kazakhgate
scandal, the extremely sensitive subject to Nazarbayev, in the run-up to the election. Is
this because of the Prosecutor's General warning, which said that insulting the honor and
dignity of the president will be penalized?
-- No, not because of this. You see, as a lawyer and former prosecutor
general I find it difficult to brush aside the presumption of innocence, since the trial
in the US hasn't started yet. But when asked about the Kazakhgate, I answer...
-- Do you think Nazarbayev will remain president until his tenure
ends in 2013?
-- I believe that in a couple of years the transfer of power to his
successor will take place. However, any successor is not Nazarbayev. He will not be able
to rule and disregard opposition at the same time.
-- Will the succession take place within the family?
-- This option would be most tragic. This means a war. To begin with,
the “family” itself has been split, everyone in Kazakhstan is aware of this. Secondly,
those close to the president won’t permit this.
-- It was clear on the eve of the election that western leaders were
interested in preserving the status quo in Kazakhstan...
-- Yes, the West continues to regard Kazakhstan from the point of view
of consumers because of its mineral resources and geopolitical importance. That's why we
ask the West of nothing.
“Vremya Novostei”, December 6, 2005
vremya.ru
http://www.eurasia.org.ru |
