Kazakh election flaws The Soviet-style numbers have little to
do with democracy and everything to do with consolidating the power of the authoritarian
Mr Nazarbayev
Nursultan
Nazarbayev of Kazakhstan triumphed in Sunday's presidential elections, securing a further
seven years in office on top of the 14 he has already served. He won 91 per cent of the
vote, a bit short of 1991's 99 per cent but well ahead of the 80 per cent he scored in the
last poll in 1999.
These Soviet-style
numbers have little to do with democracy and everything to do with consolidating the power
of the authoritarian Mr Nazarbayev. The Organisation for Security and Co-operation in
Europe, which observed the vote, denounced the polls as flawed and listed many faults,
notably the intimidation and detention of opposition campaigners.
Mr Nazarbayev
congratulated himself for stopping the former Soviet Union's run of popular revolts which
saw veteran leaders deposed in Georgia, Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan. This time the authorities
won, as they did in the recent Azeri parliamentary polls. Not surprisingly, the Kazakh
result was warmly welcomed by the Kremlin, which is desperate to ensure a continuity of
power when President Vladimir Putin is due to step down in 2008.
For the west, there
is a painful dilemma. Oil-rich Kazakhstan is a vital energy supplier, a stable ally in the
war on terror and a bastion of economic progress in a poor region. But it is is profoundly
undemocratic. While Mr Nazarbayev has tolerated a modicum of activity by opposition
groups, independent journalists and non-government organisations, this election has proved
that when it comes to the crunch he brooks no challenges. He ignored the pressure from the
west to give the opposition a chance. A 70:30 result would have given Mr Nazarbayev's
friends in the west the opportunity to argue that there was political progress. But this
was not enough for Mr Nazarbayev. He wanted to prove he was boss - presumably to ensure
the polls did not give the opposition even a hint of encouragement.
So, what should the
US and the European Union do next? The world needs Kazakhstan's oil and gas just as much
as Kazakhstan needs to export it. So there should be no question of applying economic
pressure. It would in any case be foolish to slow economic development in an impoverished
region.
But Mr Nazarbayev
wants more than money, corrupt though his regime is. He seeks recognition. He delights in
the prospect that Kazakhstan is due to assume the OSCE's rotating chairmanship in 2009. It
is not too late for the OSCE to reconsider. Better an empty seat in the chairman's office
than have it occupied by a representative of a president who cares little for the OSCE's
values. Mr Nazarbayev often argues that it took western countries centuries to become
democracies and that in 15 years Kazakhstan has come a long way. That is true, but a 91
per cent election victory cancels out most of the progress. Even by local standards, this
was a defeat for democracy.
http://news.ft.com
The Financial Times
http://www.eurasia.org.ru
06 Dec 2005 |
