After Ukraine, the empire strikes back

When President Viktor Yushchenko took power in Ukraine's Orange Revolution a year ago he forecast the revolt would encourage democracy across the former Soviet Union.

Twelve months later, his prediction rings a bit hollow. The year that began with Mr Yushchenko's triumph has ended with the success of Nursultan Nazarbayev, the authoritarian president of Kazakhstan, who earlier this month won his third presidential election with 91 per cent of the vote. His victory was welcomed by the region's other authoritarian leaders, notably Russia's Vladimir Putin. The forces of anti-democracy are striking back.

The region's democrats must not despair. Even if revolution has now provoked an effective reaction, the campaign for political liberty in the former Soviet Union is not finished. But success will be a long time coming.

After the Soviet Union's collapse, authoritarian ex-Communist officials took power in most ex-Soviet republics, often rebranding themselves as nationalists to gain legitimacy. Under former president Boris Yeltsin, Russia bucked the trend and witnessed flashes of genuine democracy but under Mr Putin it has emerged as an increasingly authoritarian state.

The first democratic shock came with Georgia's Rose Revolution two years ago, when protests brought Mikheil Saakashvili to power. Then came Ukraine, followed by Kyrgyzstan's Tulip Revolution, when Askar Akayev was deposed as president. As the largest of the three states and the one closest to Russia, Ukraine caused the most heartache. Incumbent rulers feared that if a revolt could succeed in Ukraine it could succeed anywhere, even in Russia.

They were right to be afraid. Mr Yushchenko showed decisively that even decades of totalitarianism could not keep people in chains.

Now the forces of reaction have gone into overdrive. In Uzbekistan, hundreds died in a bloody crackdown on demonstrators in the town of Andijan. In Russia, the Kremlin has taken a more sophisticated approach, recognising that a regime that shoots its own people is a regime that has failed. The modern authoritarian ruler must maintain the pressure on the media and on potential challengers. But he must also give citizens some of what they want - especially good jobs, pensions and public services. Kazakh officials have come to the same conclusion. So have the authorities in Azerbaijan, where pro-government parties won recent parliamentary polls.

These authoritarian states have seen that while elections create chances for the opposition they are also an opportunity for rulers to legitimise power. Successful authoritarian presidents want to be popular and demonstrate their popularity in a public test. The secret lies in rigging the test. Mr Nazarbayev's supporters resorted to crude ballot-stuffing. But this leads to international criticism and embarrassment for any self-respecting president. Better to prepare the ground in advance - mainly through media manipulation - so the establishment's candidate wins without too much foul play on the day. This is the Kremlin's strategy for 2008, when Mr Putin is required to step down and make way for a successor. In Belarus, President Aleksander Lukashenko is taking a more repressive approach in the run-up to next year's presidential election. But, unlike Mr Putin, he is past caring about his international image.

The authoritarian presidents are making the most of the revolutionaries' current difficulties. In Georgia and Ukraine, Mr Saakashvili and Mr Yushchenko have split with former allies. In Kyrgyzstan, post-revolt in-fighting risks descending into chaos.

But democrats must not lose hope. Despite the setbacks, the three revolts, especially the Orange Revolution, have changed the former Soviet Union. They have proved the region is not a no-go zone for democracy. They have developed an armoury of peaceful weapons - including mobile phones and websites.

Above all they have demonstrated that, under the right conditions, people power works. The region's authoritarians have responded by trying to make sure the right conditions are not created anywhere else any time soon. The challenge for the region's democrats is to do precisely the opposite.

“Financial Times”, December 27, 2005