Unfair and undemocratic
Leading world press about election in Kazakhstan

Foregone conclusion
The Economist, December 1st, 2005, Almaty

Don't wait up for the result

In an election campaign notable for its dearth of glamour, the slick and so far only television advertisement run by the incumbent, President Nursultan Nazarbaev, does stand out: it shows Kazakhstan's leading businessmen declaring that "we entrepreneurs have made our choice" and one by one proceeding to praise the enormous economic successes of the country in snappy soundbites. They then all shake Mr Nazarbaev's hand and line up for a group photo with him.

The image of Kazakhstan's political leader standing shoulder to shoulder with the country's business elite is powerful. It is supposed to convey the message that Kazakhstan is on the right track and needs continuity. In fact, there is little doubt that the authoritarian 65-year-old Mr Nazarbaev, who has been in office since before independence in 1991, will win re-election on December 4th for another seven-year term. Whether the elections will be free or fair is another matter. But, say local experts, there is little chance of a "colour revolution", as seen in other former Soviet republics - Georgia, Ukraine, and Kirgizstan -over the past two years. All were triggered by rigged elections.

Most revolutions have their origins in poverty and people's despair over not being able to improve their lot. In Kazakhstan, poverty stands at 12%, according to the World Bank, which is high but much lower than a few years ago. Kazakhstan's oil-driven economy has been booming over the past six years, growing at rates of around 10% a year. Oil production has more than doubled and is scheduled to triple to over 3m barrels per day by 2015, turning Kazakhstan into one of the world's biggest oil exporters.

High oil prices have obviously played a role, as have economic reforms and success in attracting foreign investment. Jean Lemierre, head of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, says Kazakhstan should be compared with the East European countries that have joined the European Union, rather than with other former Soviet republics.

But that is only one side of the coin. "People think of what more they could have if there was democracy and no corruption", - says Nurbulat Masanov, a political scientist. "Even the support of the business elite, shown as so firm in the advertisement, is not iron-clad. Businessmen depend on the goodwill of the Kazakh leader. Many fortunes have been created since independence, but a virtual absence of legal protection has created a feeling of unease", - says Mr Masanov.

Aside from Mr Nazarbaev, there are four other contenders for the top job. Only two, Zharmakhan Tuyakbai of For a Just Kazakhstan, a group that unites most of the opposition, and Alikhan Baimenov of the Ak Zhol (Right Path) party, are considered serious candidates. Mr Tuyakbai, 58, is a former speaker of the Mazhilis, the lower house of parliament, who left his post last year to join the opposition after flawed parliamentary elections. He lacks the eloquence and charisma of Mr Nazarbaev, but is widely viewed as sincere.