Demonstrations feared in Kazakhstan

ASTANA, Kazakhstan (AP) - Kazakhstan is electing a president Sunday amid little doubt that longtime leader Nursultan Nazarbayev will win - and dark speculation about what will happen thereafter.

In recent weeks, authorities have repeatedly accused the pro-democracy opposition of planning demonstrations modeled on the protests that drove President Askar Akayev of neighboring Kyrgyzstan out of the country in March.

Last week, Kazakhstan closed its border with Kyrgyzstan, either fearing an influx of troublemakers or trying to create the impression that an uprising was being plotted.

Nazarbayev's main challenger, Zharmakhan Tuyakbai, leaves the question open. He maintains the opposition won't mount any demonstrations that violate Kazakhstan's restrictive laws, but tells reporters that "if authorities provoke a standoff with people, civil unrest, we will stand by the people."

Kazakhstan, four times the size of Texas, has vast oil and gas reserves that are a potential alternative to Middle East petroleum, and its stability matters greatly to the United States and Western Europe. The country borders both Russia and China.

Under Nazarbayev, Kazakhstan has cannily maneuvered between Washington, Moscow and Beijing. With Russia and China, it's a member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization that has called for U.S. bases in the region to be closed. At the same time, a small Kazakh contingent is part of the U.S.-directed forces in Iraq. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, in an October visit, urged Kazakhstan to undertake democratic reforms, but it was a mild statement, compared with Washington's strong criticism of some other ex-Soviet governments.

Nazarbayev, who has led the nation of 15 million since 1989, when it was still part of the Soviet Union, is widely esteemed for his economic reforms, in contrast to Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, also led by Soviet-era presidents.

Kazakhstan's economy has grown by some 75 percent in the last seven years, and per capita gross national income is about $2,250, about five times higher than neighboring Uzbekistan's.

Rival Tuyakbai promises to curb corruption, make democratic reforms, reduce poverty and distribute energy revenues more fairly. But opinion polls predict Nazarbayev will win a new seven-year term with 60 percent to 70 percent of the vote against four challengers.

Kazakhstan's comparative prosperity is his strong suit, while dissatisfaction with him is rooted in the Kazakhstan's inhibited political climate, and in allegations that he and his family have enriched themselves at the country's expense. His two previous election victories were widely criticized as undemocratic.

Opposition candidates complain that they can't rent billboards, that their campaign materials have been stolen and that press runs of newspapers supporting them have been seized.

Astana, the capital perched on Kazakhstan's snowy steppes, has few posters of opposition candidates, but huge banners extolling Nazarbayev abound. One calls him "The best president in the world."

The campaign also is shadowed by the Nov. 12 shooting death of politician Zamanbek Nurkadilov, a prominent Nazarbayev critic and Tuyakbai supporter.

The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe is deploying about 400 election observers and its day-after verdict on the voting could spur or dampen any postelection protests. It also is likely to carry weight because of Nazarbayev has said he wants Kazakhstan to chair the prestigious organization in 2009.

"Any chairman has to exemplify the core values of the organization, and this will require that they demonstrate that in a serious way," said U.S. Ambassador John Ordway.

Nazarbayev is promising political reforms if re-elected, including reducing the president's power and giving more to parliament. But he made his priorities clear in a recent visit to Ukraine, where protests forced a rerun of a fraudulent presidential election a year ago and inspired Kazakhstan's opposition.

"We must strive toward democratic values," Nazarbayev said, but added that "economic reforms must come first, then political reforms."